Maybe Kyoto's not such a big deal... · j F y
Or rather, maybe it just won’t matter if we’re at the crest of the crude oil production curve . Of course, happily the financial industry is always there with a much cheerier outlook , and the International Monetary Fund has send out a calming memo
Now, you may say this sort of thing has been said before, but the guy behind the theory, Hubbert, predicted the 1973 oil crisis in 1956, and has a geology school named after him for it. Of course, he was believed to be a fool right up until to that year…
As the physicist Richard Feynman said about the shuttle program,
“The fact that this danger did not lead to a catastrophe before is no guarantee that it will not the next time…When playing Russian roulette the fact that the first shot got off safely is little comfort for the next.”
And hey, if our governments were holding their breath for the now-and-forever peak of oil production any year now, you’d think they’d be, oh heck, maybe quietly working on an emergency response plan or really detailed studies about how to transition to an oil-short world without resource wars breaking out for the last of the black stuff.
I mean, even a chimpanzee would be smart enough to see that after running up a credit card with China – their biggest up-and-coming competitor for the remaining oil – it might be best to lay low. After all, all China would have to do is just divest themselves of their dollar reserves, to cut the value of the $ to 1/4 its present value, and knock the US on its ass without firing a shot.
Apparently their dollar’s still overvalued by 20 to 40%, even in present day conditions. That, combined with their incredible real estate bubble , well, it’s not lookin’ so good.
Oh, and, just in case you thought we were immune: North America’s natural gas supplies are already declining in production, and even Canada’s crude oil production is past peak. Down to the dirty tar sands of Al-berta! (oops, you need cheap natural gas, to turn the tar into oil. DAnG. And they thought Kyoto was the big problem!) Nuts, and then there’s that pesky NAFTA, that says we have to sell to the USA before meeting Canada’s consumption.
Of course, there’s also coal – if it were to replace oil, it’d last about 60 years. But then the atmosphere’s kind of totally fucked, isn’t it? Crude oil is worse than natural gas, Tar sands are a lot worse than that, and coal is…well, Florida might want to get some Dike engineering pointers from the dutch.
For a physicist’s take on this issue, and possible replacement energy sources, check out this interview
Why isn’t this front page news, like the gas hikes? Dunno. Sometimes I get the idea that world isn’t run by adults.
Well, at least I can stop being pissy about irresponsible idiots who bought giant SUV’s. The price of oil will bob up and down…but average up…and then, one week some day soon, no more SUVs on the road! Weee! Err, and a lot less jobs, and a collapsing US dollar, and….um….huge interest rates on my student loan…uh…
So Jess, how about that 4-month hike?
8-D
Ya, I know…my blog’s kind of a downer lately. Well, the last exam is this Saturday, and I’ve got pictures and shite to put up after that. Real life stuff. Oo, and this is the start of a glorious sailing season. Too bad the power boaters won’t be able to afford much gas! Such a shame.
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— Mikey M j, g:ia #
— Jess M j, g:ia #